Clint Walkner teams up with two of Walkner Condon’s U.S. expat financial advisors Syl Michelin, a Chartered Financial Analyst®, and Stan Farmer, CFP®, to discuss the second quarter and look ahead to Q3 of 2021.
In another good quarter that has seen the S&P hover around all-time highs, things started rather uneventfully but then changed in June, as the tech sector got its groove back. The trio takes a trip down memory lane, framing the current tech atmosphere in terms of the late 90s and early 2000s, including a comparison between the Bulletin Board System of internet yesteryear and the new age, the Wall Street Bets subreddit. They also pose and explore the perplexing question related to the valuation spread in the S&P 500 and finish by revealing their favorite trend to watch – meme stocks or cryptocurrency?
Whether you’re craving analysis of the impact of quantitative easing on the markets in 2020 and how that may continue to unfold in 2021, or you’re curious about the trend that is Electric Vehicles, our experienced team of advisors has authored a breadth of content for U.S. Expats, which is curated in our first-ever comprehensive investment guide. Covering topics like sustainable investing and the trends in the S&P 500, this interactive PDF is meant to be a tool in your arsenal as you approach 2021.
The 3rd quarter provided strong returns for risk assets across the board. In spite of continued investor anxiety about COVID and the upcoming elections, the S&P 500 finished the quarter up 8.9%, the Russell 2000 up 4.9%%, and the broad global markets up 8.1%. In the fixed income space, the US 10-year rate rose 3 basis points to 0.69%, while the US dollar continued its softening trend versus other currencies, with the DXY index down 3.6%. The Bloomberg commodity index rose 9%.
While market commentators have focused their attention on COVID and the elections, if price action is any guide, investors have their sight set on a much loftier concern: clean energy.
One of this year’s biggest market stories has been the seemingly unstoppable rise of Tesla, but the latest clean energy craze also benefited much less glamorous names such as Sunrun (up 290% in Q3), Enphase Energy (up 73% this quarter) or Vestas Wind Systems (up 52%…) . What these stocks have in common is their involvement in the production of solar, wind and other renewable energy sources. The entire sector has been on a tear: S&P Global Clean Energy Index, which tracks a basket of 30 clean energy names and can be seen as a proxy for investor sentiment, is up 47.6% in Q3 alone, outperforming even the red-hot technology sector year-to-date:
The contrast is most striking when compared to the traditional energy sector (oil and gas), which is down 20.8% in Q3 alone:
Looking at the chart above, one might almost get the feeling that a true energy revolution is unfolding before our eyes, but that’s not quite the case: the S&P Global Clean Energy Index remains a small, niche, segment of the market. That said, the enthusiasm is real, and so is the market’s disdain for the traditional, “dirty”, energy space.
Goehring & Rozencwajg, an investment firm specializing in the natural resources space, highlighted in their recent market report  that the share of energy stocks as a proportion of the total market has been declining for years and even decades. In 1980, the energy sector peaked at around 35% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. In 2008 it was about 15%. After this year’s rout, oil and gas now represents a measly 2% of the index.
For such a key strategic resource, it’s amazing to think that oil and gas are now little more than a rounding error in the average investor portfolio. I asked Adam Rozencwajg if they had ever seen a time when oil was this hated in their team’s 30-year experience of energy investing “no, never” he said, “I don’t think it’s been this hated since Colonel Drake drilled the first American oil well in 1858”.
The energy transition theme is not new, and could be one of mega trends that will shape the future of the global economy. Electrification (and “decarbonization”) is the idea of replacing traditional petroleum-based energy sources with clean electric alternatives: Imagine leaving your solar-powered home in the morning and driving your electric car to go work in a wind-turbine-powered office building. As far removed as it may seem from our daily realities, this is the dream of a successful transition to cleaner energy. Some have even made the case that, with a bit of help from nuclear power, America could be fully electrified right now .
The market has seen clean energy crazes before. In the heyday of the pre-2008 bull market, clean energy was one of the hot sectors. At the time, a massive influx of government and VC money sent valuations soaring. Eventually, misallocation of capital and technological shortcomings brought the “green bubble” to an abrupt end (see Juliet Eilperin’s 2012 article on the topic “Why the Clean Tech Boom Went Bust” , for a good post-mortem on the topic). Today, the prospect of a Biden presidency and his ambitious “Plan for an energy revolution”  is without a doubt contributing to the sector’s renewed hope, but real-life solutions, beyond campaign promises, will be urgently needed to sustain the trend, or the dream of an electric future will remain just that.
Disclosure: The charts and any returns illustrated on this blog post are for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation or offer to purchase any of the securities listed above. Before making any investment decisions, including buying any stocks listed above, you should consider your risk tolerance and objectives. Check with a licensed professional before you act. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Americans who filed taxes abroad in 2019 (or if those have not yet been filed yet, 2018) are eligible for the tax credit. For those that earn under $75,000 in adjusted gross income for singles and $150,000 for married filers, they will receive direct payments from the government in the amount of $1,200 (single) or $2,400 (married).This will be sent via direct deposit for those that have set up ACH with the IRS, and a check can be sent to those that do not have that established. There is a phaseout for those earning above $75k/$150k, ending at $99k for single filers and $198k married.
There are a couple of other lesser known provisions in the bill that may impact Americans abroad and we’re happy to discuss for how these changes may apply to your situation:
Required Minimum Distributions
For 2020, Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) have been waived for all retirement accounts, including IRA, 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans. This includes beneficiary IRAs as well. If you were in the category where you were required to take two RMDs in one year due to delaying your first RMD, you happen to be in luck – no RMD is required.
No 10% Penalty For Early Retirees
For early retirees that qualify for “coronavirus-related distributions” (an intentionally broad definition), if you took out money prior to age 59 ½ or 55 depending on the type of retirement account, you were potentially subject to a 10% penalty. For 2020 you may now take up to $100k out of your pre-tax retirement accounts without penalty. You are still subject to reporting your distributions as income, though you are allowed to stretch the recognition of this income over three years.
In addition to our announcement regarding the account closures for Italy and France for retail customers, we wanted to include an additional FAQ regarding account closures for Charles Schwab retail clients.
Q: Why is Charles Schwab UK closing accounts for clients in France and Italy?
A: The initial claim is Brexit. While Brexit is not yet a fait accompli, indications are that it will mean the end of the passporting regime, which allows for companies registered in one EU country to be registered in all of them. However, it is also likely that Schwab is– in the wake of their decision regardingPRIIPs and KIIDS and the decision to no longer sell ETFs to EU-based clients(which was much later than other brokerage firms)– taking a closer look at European compliance and realizing that it is more complicated than they’ve originally anticipated.
Schwab is more flexible than many U.S. based brokers in their account closures as they are not yet at the stage where they are announcing they will close all accounts in a period of time, but they are now limiting actions in the accounts to sales and liquidation in terms of moving out the accounts by December 31.
If you split time between the EU and the United States, maintaining a U.S. address is the easiest solution as well. However, individuals should resist those Advisors who push them to keep an American address or encourage other schemes to subvert U.S. and EU rules.
Q: How do we know that this won’t happen to IB clients?
This issue is still ongoing and we will update clients and the public as we learn more. For investors that would like to discuss their specific situation, we welcome you toschedule an initial no-cost, no-obligation consultationwith our Director of International Advisory services, Keith Poniewaz. Keith works with U.S. expats on financial planning and wealth management. You may also email Keith as well.
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